Planning water resources management systems using a fuzzy-boundary interval-stochastic programming method

a r t i c l e i n f o In this study, a fuzzy-boundary interval-stochastic programming (FBISP) method is developed for planning water resources management systems under uncertainty. The developed FBISP method can deal with uncertainties expressed as probability distributions and fuzzy-boundary intervals. With the aid of an interactive algorithm woven with a vertex analysis, solutions for FBISP model under associated α-cut levels can be generated by solving a set of deterministic submodels. The related probability and possibility information can also be reflected in the solutions for the objective function value and decision variables. The developed FBISP is also applied to water resources management and planning within a multi-reservoir system. Various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic consequences when the pre-regulated water-allocation targets are violated are analyzed. The results obtained are useful for generating a range of decision alternatives under various system conditions, and thus helping decision makers to identify desired water resources management policies under uncertainty. The constantly increasing demand for water in terms of both sufficient quantity and satisfied quality has forced planners to contemplate comprehensive, complex and ambitious plans for water resources management systems. In recent decades, water shortage, flood event, unreliable water supply, and poor water quality have led to a variety of adverse impacts on social-economic development and human life. One of the major reasons for these disasters is the lack of efficient, equitable and sustainable water-resources management as well as effective policy instructions from decision makers. Consequently , effective planning of water resources management is important for developing regional and/or national socioeconomic sustainability. Previously, a large number of methods were developed for allocating and managing water resources in more efficient and [43] proposed an interactive fuzzy multiobjective linear programming method and applied it to water supply planning; Huang [19] proposed an interval-parameter programming (IPP) method for dealing with uncertainties expressed as interval numbers in a water resources management system. Bender and Simonovic [3] proposed a fuzzy compromise approach to water resources planning under imprecision uncertainty. Jairaj and Vedula [22] optimized a multi-reservoir system through using fuzzy mathematical programming (FMP) technique, where uncertainties existing in reservoir inflows were treated as fuzzy sets. Faye et al. [15] proposed a fuzzy approach for the short-term of water resource systems under uncertainty. Lee and Chang [28] proposed an interactive fuzzy approach for planning a stream water resources management system that involved vague …